Search results for "Bayesian estimation"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Empirical Bayes improves assessments of diversity and similarity when overdispersion prevails in taxonomic counts with no covariates
2019
Abstract The assessment of diversity and similarity is relevant in monitoring the status of ecosystems. The respective indicators are based on the taxonomic composition of biological communities of interest, currently estimated through the proportions computed from sampling multivariate counts. In this work we present a novel method to estimate the taxonomic composition able to work even with a single sample and no covariates, when data are affected by overdispersion. The presence of overdispersion in taxonomic counts may be the result of significant environmental factors which are often unobservable but influence communities. Following the empirical Bayes approach, we combine a Bayesian mo…
Bayesian pharmacokinetic-guided prophylaxis with recombinant factor VIII in severe or moderate haemophilia A
2018
Introduction: Personalised pharmacokinetics (PK) using Bayesian analysis with limited sampling is assumed to help to optimise prophylaxis in haemophilia A (HA) patients. Materials and methods: Our prospective, observational study analysed the influence of PK parameters on clinical variables (bleeding rates, joint status, adherence, and consumption) using myPKFiT (R) in a cohort of twenty-one severe and moderate HA patients on prophylaxis with recombinant FVIII (Advate (R)) in two periods of one year, the first before PK-based tailoring and the second after PK-guided prophylaxis. Intra-individual and inter-individual coefficients of variation (CV) of half-life (t(1/2)) were calculated. Resul…
Estimation of causal effects with small data in the presence of trapdoor variables
2021
We consider the problem of estimating causal effects of interventions from observational data when well-known back-door and front-door adjustments are not applicable. We show that when an identifiable causal effect is subject to an implicit functional constraint that is not deducible from conditional independence relations, the estimator of the causal effect can exhibit bias in small samples. This bias is related to variables that we call trapdoor variables. We use simulated data to study different strategies to account for trapdoor variables and suggest how the related trapdoor bias might be minimized. The importance of trapdoor variables in causal effect estimation is illustrated with rea…
Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity
2014
We present a Bayesian framework for estimating the customer lifetime value (CLV) and the customer equity (CE) based on the purchasing behavior deducible from the market surveys on customer purchasing behavior. The proposed framework systematically addresses the challenges faced when the future value of customers is estimated based on survey data. The scarcity of the survey data and the sampling variance are countered by utilizing the prior information and quantifying the uncertainty of the CE and CLV estimates by posterior distributions. Furthermore, information on the purchase behavior of the customers of competitors available in the survey data is integrated to the framework. The introduc…
Bayesian models for data missing not at random in health examination surveys
2018
In epidemiological surveys, data missing not at random (MNAR) due to survey nonresponse may potentially lead to a bias in the risk factor estimates. We propose an approach based on Bayesian data augmentation and survival modelling to reduce the nonresponse bias. The approach requires additional information based on follow-up data. We present a case study of smoking prevalence using FINRISK data collected between 1972 and 2007 with a follow-up to the end of 2012 and compare it to other commonly applied missing at random (MAR) imputation approaches. A simulation experiment is carried out to study the validity of the approaches. Our approach appears to reduce the nonresponse bias substantially…
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
2020
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finlands population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual popula…
Using recursive Bayesian estimation for matching GPS measurements to imperfect road network data
2010
Map-matching refers to the process of projecting positioning measurements to a location on a digital road network map. It is an important element of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) focusing on driver assistance applications, on emergency and incident management, arterial and freeway management, and other applications. This paper addresses the problem of map-matching in the applications characterized by imperfect map quality and restricted computational resources - e.g. in the context of community-based ITS applications. Whereas a number of map-matching methods are available, often these methods rely on topological analysis, thereby making them sensitive to the map inaccuracies. In …
Non-monophyly of the “cydnoid” complex within Pentatomoidea (Hemiptera: Heteroptera) revealed by Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of nuclear rDNA seque…
2017
The “cydnoid” complex of pentatomoid families, including Cydnidae, Parastrachiidae, Thaumastellidae, and Thyreocoridae, is morphologically defined by the presence of an array of more or less flattened stout setae (called coxal combs), situated on the distal margin of coxae. These structures, suggested to prevent the coxal-trochanteral articulation from injuries caused by particles of soil, sand or dust, by their nature and function are unknown elsewhere in the Heteroptera. As such, coxal combs were regarded as a synapomorphy of this group of families, and enabled the definition of it as a monophylum. In this study, the monophyly of the “cydnoid” complex of families is tested for the first t…